Muhammad Halasa - a Palestinian researcher specializing in Zionist affairs

Radha in some colloquial or popular Arabic dialects means raising one’s voice, lying, slandering, and misleading. Until recently, we thought that this “ugly art” was an act practiced exclusively by some Arab “spinners,” but then it turned out to be a favorite pastime of some “Israeli” leaders, especially after the dust of the confrontation with the resistance settled, and it seems that it seeped into them due to the good relationship with each other. Arab leaders.

Within less than a year, Israel once again found itself facing a new round of aggression against the Gaza Strip. Operation “Shield and Arrow” was not different from the previous two rounds of escalation: November 2019 and August 2022, as “Israel” focused in this military campaign on the Islamic Jihad movement, and sought a short round with it, while being keen to avoid sliding into a direct confrontation. And broad with Hamas.

The previous three rounds were, according to the Israeli view, operations of “military deterrence,” but they were without a political goal, as “Israel” has always faced difficulty in completing its military operations in a short time and translating its military action into a political achievement, due to the absence of political goals and the limited Israeli desire, Mostly, it's "quiet for quiet."

In the end, the impact of Operation “Shield and Arrow” will remain short-term, just like the impact of the previous two operations, as the Israeli strategic security engagement with the Gaza Strip did not change during or after them.

However, voices of “victory” are rising from within “Israel” in the face of resistance attacks from the south and north. As it escalates, Netanyahu chooses what he has always done, which is to escape from defeat and take pride and “rebuttal”: “We delivered heavy strikes on Gaza. I believe that the message did not only reach them, but also reached other parties in the region after they witnessed our capabilities. If there is a need to revamp deterrence, we will do so. We have changed the equation.” He said proudly during the flag march activities.

Since 2009, there have been 9 rounds of confrontations with the resistance in Gaza. After each round, the occupation prime ministers and their defense ministers boasted that “terrorist organizations received a fatal blow and were defeated,” and then a short period passed until the missiles returned to raining down on the settlements of the occupied Palestinian interior in particular, and on the settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip in particular.

In fact, many Israelis realize that the “Shield and Arrow” operation against Gaza had only one goal, which was to save the Netanyahu government, which was torn by waves of contradictions and internal differences, and that it was nothing more than a distraction from the trial and protests taking place against him. He knew that well. So, he resorted to cynically exploiting the power of the “army” to save his government.

Since Operation Shield and Arrow began with the assassination of three Islamic Jihad leaders, “Israel” waited for the response, which did not come until more than 30 hours had passed, during which life in the settlements of the so-called Gaza Strip envelope was completely disrupted, and study and work in the settlements were disrupted. The region, and shelters were opened in the settlements of the occupied interior from Beersheba to the center of occupied Palestine as a result of the hysteria that struck Israeli society.

In fact, Islamic Jihad acted wisely by alerting Israel for an entire day without a response. For the movement, it was a wise decision that demonstrated its ability to play with the consciousness of the Israelis. Psychological warfare, in its essence, is the careful use of propaganda and psychological operations for the purpose of influencing the enemy’s opinions, feelings, attitudes, and behavior, in a way that helps achieve national goals. 

What is noteworthy is that the Islamic Jihad movement knew exactly what excites and influences the Israeli public, and did not refrain from benefiting from this knowledge, but rather dictated the rules of the game almost completely, so at least a quarter of “Israel” was paralyzed, while the rest were busy researching possible scenarios for the movement’s response. .

Although Netanyahu marketed to his audience that “Shield and Arrow” was a “mandatory” operation against which there was no escape from Islamic Jihad in light of its “rebellious” behavior in recent years, a large portion of the Israeli public was convinced that it was just another operation in a series of Multiple operations without any special achievement in light of the current situation.

Israel did not announce any action that would significantly change reality or the rules of the game regarding Gaza and bring years of calm, but instead proceeded to target a group of jihadi leaders who it said had recently led fire from Gaza toward Israeli settlements. Last.

How long will the calm last? This question has no answer, and does not actually depend on the military operation or its results. It is true that “Israel” surprised Jihad with a painful blow by targeting the three leaders simultaneously, and its focus, while the confrontation continued, was on deepening the achievement by continuing to harm it, then conducting negotiations through the use of fire to reach a ceasefire, and continuing to emphasize removing Hamas from the battle, but the movement Islamic Jihad, the organization with a “special struggle philosophy,” is not a political party, nor is it a ruling authority like any other. For this reason, it is not possible to build on deterrence against it, and the next round with it is only a matter of time, and it does not appear from experience that it will take a long time.

“Calm is met with calm” has been a recurring goal of the military operations launched by “Israel” against the Islamic Jihad movement in the Gaza Strip, without seeking to change the strategic situation in southern occupied Palestine. “Israel” seeks to achieve long-term security calm on the basis of military deterrence, while ignoring the fact that the deterrence it claims to have achieved is far-fetched.

From the point of view of Islamic Jihad, which determined when the round would end and how intense it would be, engaging in several days of fighting against the “army” of the Israeli occupation, standing firmly against its military arsenal, and demonstrating the ability to fire rockets deep into “Israel” even moments before the ceasefire takes effect is... The essence and spirit of “resistance.” 

The concept of deterrence doctrine is based on two parts: The first is the availability of great military capabilities. There is no doubt that “Israel” has many of them, and the other is for the enemy to know that you are not afraid to use force against him.

Today, the resistance factions are well aware of the considerations that guide Israel’s behavior, and they know that it will not break the tools and rules of the game, and that it has restrictions on the use of force. Biden is not Donald Trump, who was one of its strongest supporters, and it does not have a stable government, and its Prime Minister protects his back by resorting to war, and it has no real desire or interest to enter into a comprehensive confrontation, as using the “heavy hand” may lead to a broad, comprehensive confrontation that will cause... With huge losses for her.

The fact that the Israeli security establishment does not change the “traditional concept” in confronting the Gaza Strip, even after decades of continuous deterioration of the security situation in all arenas, raises questions about the effectiveness of this theory, and sheds light on the problematic nature of the policy of deterrence that “Israel” boasts about today. 

Some of the tactical successes that “Israel” has boasted about in its operational procedures in the past few days are not deterrence, and all the measures it is taking send a clear message that there is another round coming, and perhaps rounds, but the most difficult question relates to the deterrence equation: how many confrontations are necessary for deterrence to be achieved. ? How much bombing of Gaza would it take to bring about calm for two or three years?

For this reason, decision-makers in “Israel” need to understand that the deterrence they boast of is nothing but threats, speeches, and empty talk. If things go calmly in the flag parade, as the occupation government wanted, everyone knows that the next round with the resistance in Gaza is only a matter of time, and perhaps not a long time.

The threat of a multi-arena confrontation on additional fronts in northern Palestine and the West Bank has not yet been removed, and one small operation in Gaza does not necessarily indicate a separation between the arenas.

The state of high security alert throughout the days of the flag march contradicts the statements of “Israeli victory” in the last round of fighting in the Gaza Strip, and the state of tension that emerged in Jerusalem against the backdrop of the flag march, and the multiple security consultations that preceded it, attest to the fact that “Israel” is not sure Absolutely from its victory, it does not act like a victor, but rather fears a violent reaction from the Gaza Strip, which may return the military escalation in the region to its starting point.